Article for the Turkish newspaper Aydinlik. 1 January 2023.

The last year was characterized by the further disintegration of the old world order dominated by US-led imperialism and the steady progression towards a new multipolar world order. This can only be expected to continue and intensify in 2023.

Imperialism’s strategy of waging war against Russia to the last Ukrainian will face defeat due to Russia’s greater capacity and resilience. Although the fighting may continue for some time, the strategic outcome is clear. And this outcome will serve to further redraw the global geopolitical map, with Eurasia consolidating itself as a cohesive force, integrating more closely with the rest of the Global South. China, Russia, Iran and Turkiye are key countries in this regard. With the Turkish election now called for May 14, this will be a key turning point, decisive for the country to deepen its independent course, whose path lies in completing Ataturk’s national democratic revolution.

China is the most important country in the creation and shaping of a new world. With the adjustment of its policies for dealing with Covid-19, we can expect a more dynamic diplomacy, already highlighted by the Beijing visits by the heads of state of two important neighboring countries, the Philippines and Turkmenistan, in the first week of January, along with the visit to some key African countries by the highly capable new Foreign Minister Qin Gang. Much of this was presaged by Xi Jinping’s active diplomacy following the 20^th Party Congress last October. A highpoint here was President Xi’s final visit of the year to Saudi Arabia, which was not only a state visit but also saw the first summits between China and the League of Arab States and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). I’ll mention three key outcomes:

• The visit followed both the cool welcome extended by the Saudi Crown Prince to Biden and his adamant refusal to persuade the OPEC+ grouping to increase production so as to further pressurize the Russian economy. Within this context not only Saudi Arabia but the rest of the GCC, too, agreed to move towards trading oil and natural gas with China in renminbi. This move to dedollarization of the global economy, the trade in key natural resources in particular, has revolutionary significance.
• In Riyadh, Xi made it crystal clear that China stands firmly on the side of the Palestinian people and their right to establish an independent state. Taken together with the football World Cup in Qatar, where support for Palestine was ubiquitous, this has to a considerable extent sidelined the Abraham Accords. The election of the most fascist government in Israeli history will only intensify the struggle against Zionism. The United Arab Emirates has become the latest country to move towards normalizing its relations with Syria. The full return of Damascus to the Arab fold is inevitable.
• Saudi Arabia has expressed its interest in joining the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. 2023 will be the Year of the BRICS, as more and more developing countries seek membership. This got off to a flying start on January 1^st with the return of Lula to the Brazilian Presidency. As well as being decisive for Latin America, this will help to revive the BRICS and reinforce its anti-imperialist essence. Lula plans to visit China in March and doubtless this will be high on the agenda.

With the launch of US-led NATO’s proxy war against Russia, the imperialist bloc, including the European Union, appeared to be united as never before. But this unity is as shallow and brittle as it is wide. German Chancellor Scholz’s Beijing visit highlighted this as will the upcoming visit of French President Macron. While the United States profits from the war, the European countries face a huge energy, industrial and cost-of-living crisis. War with Russia and confrontation with China are not in Europe’s interests. On January 19^th, Reuters reported that the defense chiefs of the US and Germany were “headed for a showdown over weapons that Kiev says could decide the fate of the war.”

Imperialist triumphalism in 2023 will prove to be short-lived.